Florencio “Butch” Abad on the February 21 to 28 SWS survey
“The Campaign of Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III is pleased with the results of the Social Weather Stations’ February 21 to 25 survey, which clearly shows that Aquino has retained his lead.
“Despite our closest rival’s excessive, beyond-the-COMELEC-limit spending on TV ads and the obscenely funded propaganda machine, the people have maintained their trust in Noynoy Aquino’s candidacy.
“The opposing camp has practically thrown everything against Noynoy Aquino but his supporters remain undaunted—what can Villar do next?
“What this survey tells us is that our message is holding and we must continue delivering that to places like the Samar Islands and Northern Luzon, where we see greater opportunities recruiting more supporters. For this purpose, the Aquino campaign intends to aggressively expand its volunteer base of 200,000 in these places.
“Although the race has become tighter, we are confident that our message of change and freedom from corruption will hold sway in the end, and that the voters will make the right decision come the May elections.”
March 9, 2010
How about this survey by Campaigns and Images Group, commissioned by British and American investor firms, with 51,000 (Yes, FIFTY ONE THOUSAND, not just 2000) respondents from different sectors and age groups. Guess who they pick?
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/top-stories/16425
It’s not really about the size of the sample but the methods used to ensure that the sample is representative of the population. That is where the experience and methodology of the most established survey firms like Pulse Asia and SWS come in. And it’s not just SWS and Pulse Asia that shows consonance of the results. We also have the other following signs pointing towards the same trend:
1) Taylor Nelson Sofres – an established name in market research around the world
2) The DILG Survey – commissioned 2 weeks ago by Secretary Puno himself and which shows Noynoy leading with 41%
3) Manila Standard Surveys
4) The DZRH Survey
5) The Bombo Radyo Surveys
Although, they’re probably far from being scientific, we can even count more informal polls like:
1) 7-Eleven Cup Poll
2) Fruitas Cup Poll
3) The vast majority of non-secluded online surveys
4) The number of people sporting baller ids and looking for more baller ids to give their friends
5) The number of cars bearing the yellow ribbon sticker. A friend once did a study and found out that 4 out of 10 cars appear to be sporting the sticker. Coincidence or not, this is consistent with what the surveys say.
You mean to say those apolitical british and american firms will get a bias and non-credible survey to base their strategies for future investments?!
Yup! Makes sense to me.
MONEY VILLARROYO CHICKENED OUT & DID NOT SHOW UP IN THE ONE-ON-ONE DEBATE WITH SENATOR BENIGNO “NOY” AQUINO !!!
Up close, not personal by BONG AUSTERO, MANILA STANDARD
Liberal Party presidential candidate Senator Benigno Aquino III recently expressed exasperation that the issues discussed in the series of presidential forums have become repetitive and tended to focus too much on populist shtick rather than on the more substantive issues hounding the nation.
He then challenged Senator Manny Villar, the candidate who is widely seen as his closest rival for the presidency, to a one-on-one debate; a challenge Villar immediately accepted. Villar shot back: Name the place and the venue. A sidelight to that verbal scuffle was Brother Eddie Villanueva’s attempt to insert himself into the picture saying that if Aquino and Villar were going to debate mano a mano, then he also should be there even if only to serve as a referee.
I cite this back story because it just so happened that the professional organization of which I am currently vice president, the People Management Association of the Philippines (the national organization of human resource management professionals in the country) was also at that time organizing its own series of presidential forums. What we had in mind was a format involving two or at most three presidential candidates at a time. Coincidentally, the plan was to invite Aquino and Villar to the first forum. So we jumped at the opportunity and made the necessary arrangements.
I say this with no malice intended: Inviting Aquino and Villar was a complicated and nerve-wracking experience. Up to day of the forum, we were never really sure if both, or either, or neither would show up. I’ve organized quite a number of national conferences myself and I familiar with the difficulties involved in getting the rich, the famous, and the notorious to speak or show up at a public event. Nothing prepared me for the kind of backroom negotiations that had to be made. But after a lot of wheeling and dealing, both camps accepted the invitation. There was also a lot of briefing and coaching on the talking points and the format of the forum. I don’t really know anymore how it came to pass but somewhere along the way, Brother Eddie Villanueva’s participation became part of the arrangement.
Aquino and Villanueva did show up. Villar chickened out at the last minute. If Villar thought human resource managers can easily be dispensed with, he has another thought coming. We directly influence millions of workers—we’re the gatekeepers of information and learning in industry, we’re also the people directly responsible for managing and developing those employed in the private sector.
A friend in media who covers the presidential candidates intimated to me that notwithstanding the bravado he displayed in responding to the Aquino challenge to a one-on-one debate, Villar is actually uncomfortable in forums where Aquino is also present because the crowd inevitably gravitates towards the latter.
This was exactly what happened last week at the PMAP forum. I take my hats off to Brother Eddie Villanueva who must really be such a humble man not to take offense at the fact that people mobbed Aquino and relegated him to the sidelines. I can understand how such a spectacle would be a blow to Villar’s ego. Whether it is on the wane or not, the Aquino magic is a real phenomenon.
The general perception is that there is an ocean of difference between the public persona and who a person really is up close. Television, which is the most popular medium today, brings candidates into our bedrooms and living rooms and magnifies their supposed strengths and weaknesses —their brilliance, nervous gestures, warts, thinning hair, and all. But for all its vaunted power, television has limitations. For one, it has to appeal to as many types of constituents and therefore tends to be superficial in treatment. There is no substitute for small forums that function like town hall meetings focused on specific concerns and issues. In fact, town hall meetings have been staple fixtures in the presidential elections in the United States since the eighties.
But then again, it really still boils down to the readiness and capability of candidates to provide incisive and in-depth answers to questions asked of them. I have noted that even when our presidential candidates are asked direct questions that call for specifics such as action plans and timelines, they still tend to answer with motherhood statements and broad strokes.
I was a little disappointed that at the PMAP forum, Senator Aquino couldn’t be more specific with his answers despite the fact that he had just complained, just a couple of weeks ago, about what he thought was the lack of substantive discussions in the various presidential forums. When asked, for example, how long it would take his administration to fix the mismatch problem and at what cost, he hemmed and hawed and skimmed through the surface. The moderator had to try to pin him down to talk specifics. Still, it was the moderator who had to synthesize his thoughts to come up with a specific answer: About two years, with money to be sourced from the gaps in the tax collection efforts, which would be more than enough.
If Aquino was non-committal and tended to be superficial, Villanueva was clearly oblivious of the issues. His stock answer to everything and anything was a variation of the same refrain: The problem in this country is the lack of a sense of righteousness and that he and his party would lead by example. Villanueva had specific talking points, which he had clearly mastered—memorized even—and he never strayed from these points.
There is more about Aquino that does not register on television and in other mass media channels. He is far more eloquent and engaging in person although he does tend to display non-verbal messages that seem to indicate impatience. Others have labeled these as indicative of being “petulant.” I think the senator just needs to learn to be more tolerant of criticism. At the PMAP forum, he expressed exasperation at our political system which bred incompetence and stymied innovative and long-term solutions. When the moderator cut him off with the observation that inability to change the status quo and failure to get things done within the system could also be interpreted as failure in leadership, the senator continued to whine about what he had not been allowed to do. The senator justified himself by saying he chose not to be popular.
Aquino, however, earned brownie points from me for being sincere and authentic. What I liked most about him was the fact that he didn’t try to come across as a “know-it-all,” he carried with him a folder—presumably containing statistics and various data—which he flipped through during the forum. He drank water straight from a bottle, didn’t ask for star treatment (in fact he refused to enter the room when someone else was talking because he didn’t want to interrupt), and even stayed even if he was already late for another appointment just to accommodate members of the audience who wanted to have pictures taken with him.
I still haven’t decided on who to vote for President but I know this for a fact after having met Senator Aquino, sat with him on the same table, and listened to him parry difficult questions from our group: A Noynoy Aquino presidency would not be such a bad thing.
http://www.journal.com.ph/index.php/top-stories/5028-noynoy-debates-just-waste-of-time.html
totoo po ba ito ?
Hi Rom! Thanks for the link and for asking for confirmation. Here is what we can provide as clarification:
1) In general Senator Noynoy is a bit saddened by how the current format of most debates (where candidates are given 3 minutes of uninterrupted time at most) is not very conducive to laying out the candidates’ platforms. What we often get is 1-3 hours of argumentation without much room for the candidates to constructively explain their vision of governance to the audience. Instead of emphasizing essential themes that have material and lasting impact on the country, some debates are focusing perhaps too much on populist issues.
2) Senator Noynoy is disappointed that Senator Villar has backed out of the one-on-one debate. Senator Noynoy initiated the challenge. Senator Villar conditionally accepted the challenge and then he backed out. (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideOpinion.htm?f=2010/march/1/bongaustero.isx&d=2010/march/1)
3) However, despite these disappointments and areas for improvement on some debates, Senator Noynoy has not categorically ruled out participating in more debates. There may be a number of additional major debates in the offing and we can watch out for that.
4) As we all know, Senator Noynoy has apologized and explained to Pastor Quiboloy why he could not attend the forum. Pastor Quiboloy has accepted the apology, even saying that he understands that it was beyond Senator Noynoy’s control. (http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/03/12/10/quiboloy-accepts-noynoys-apology)
Thanks again for confirming Rom.
hmmm if that is the case. why not have candidates sponsor debates of which they will have ample time or enough time to explain their sides ?
W A R N I N G”
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE IDIOTIC “VIRUSES & COCKROACHES” OF
“MANIAC VILLA RROYO”:
NAMELY:
POLO
1) GOOD VS BETTER
2) AQUINORROYO
3 ) BENIGNO SR
4) ROCKY
5) AEOLUS81
6) NGOYNGOY
7) WISECRACKER
9) MANUEL ROXAS IV
10) TOPEI
11) LMAO
12) OMG
13) USAREN MAY ETEK
14) TIBORSHO
15) SHERLY
16) NASH
ETC, ETC, ETC, ETC, ETC, ETC, ETC, ETC.
THE ABOVE-NAMED VIRUSES HAVE BEEN DETECTED, IDENTIFIED AS PAID STOOGES OF THEIR BOSS, “MANIAC VILLARROYO”! SO YOU DO NOT HAVE TO RESPOND, REACT, DISCUSS OR ARGUE WITH THEM BECAUSE IT IS JUST AN UTTER WASTE OF TIME, ENERGY & RESOURCES OF THIS WEBSITE BECAUSE THEIR ISSUES, QUESTIONS, CRITICISMS AGAINST NOY & MAR ARE “ALL THE SAME MALICIOUS FALSITIES” AND HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENTLY ANSWERED AND RESOLVED COUNTLESS TIMES BUT THEY JUST KEEP ON REPEATING IT AGAIN & AGAIN & AGAIN !!!! BLOODY TIME WASTERS!!!
THE ABOVE NAMED CRIMINALS ARE THE SAME RATBAGS, VIRUSES, PESTS THAT
MUTATE UNDER DIFFERENT ASSUMED NAMES & ALIASES” >>THEY ARE ALL AN
UTTER NUISANCE, PESTILENCE, RIFF RAFF & BANE TO SOCIETY* !!
THE ABOVE-NAMED PESKY VERMIN-INSECTS MUST BE FUMIGATED, EXTERMINATED & OBLITERATED FROM THIS WEBSITE NOW NA !!!
@admins :
can’t you somehow sanction this kind of posts to your members / supporters ?
THE LATEST VILLARROYO VIRUS, ALIAS “ROM P” WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE INFAMOUS “LIST OF VIRUSES/COCKROACHES/PAID STOOGES OF THEIR PRINCIPAL, MANNY VILLAR=SINGIT AT TAGA; SUHOL KING !!!
To all my beloved filipino people!
It is our time to shine, lets upholds our dignity. Mag-ingat sa mga politikong namimigay ng pera, because they will get it back a hundred times once have a power. Wag na nating sayangin ang ating kinabukasan sa mga taong ito. Ibuto natin ang taong may tunay na malasakit sa ating lahat mga pilipino katulad ni NOYNOY AQUINO. Sa kanya lamang mabalik ang tunay na kaginhawaan para sa ating lahat. Lets us vote for him at magbantay ng husto. Let us pray that GOD will always protect us from all kinds of evil. Kay NOYNOY tayo mga minamahal kong kapatid.
CORRUPTION IS TOLERATED & EMBRACED AS A SIN BY SUPPORTERS OF VILLAR, ARROYO, MARCOS!!!
The Bible exhorts Christians to “love the sinner but hate the sin.”
We are told to hate sin by refusing to take part in it and by condemning it when we see it. We are taught that sin is not to be excused or taken lightly. We are advised to love the sinner by speaking the truth in a spirit of love and to hate the sin by refusing to condone, ignore, or excuse it. But that’s the theory.
For the last five years, especially after the “Hello Garci” tapes exposed the massive cheating in the 2004 presidential elections, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has been excoriated, vilified, and reviled by politicians, media commentators, and the Filipino people in poll after poll which rate her the worst president in Philippine history.
But this revulsion has been largely concentrated on her personally with some detractors criticizing her height (“pandak”), her voice, and her facial expressions. Last year her critics had a field day denouncing the lavish celebration of her wedding anniversary in New York with a $20,000 dinner bill paid for by Leyte Representative Martin Romualdez. This is an impeachable offense, according to her critics, because Philippine law (Republic Act 6713) provides that “public officials shall lead modest lives appropriate to their positions and income and that they shall not engage in extravagant or ostentatious displays of wealth.”
President Arroyo has also been accused of “betrayal of public trust” for approving the national broadband network (NBN) telecommunications deal with China’s ZTE Corp. that was allegedly overpriced by at least $130 million which was supposed to be divided between First Gentleman Mike Arroyo and former Comelec chairman Jun Abalos as a reward for his role in securing her election victory in the 2004 elections. But the NBN-ZTE deal was scrapped by President Arroyo after it was exposed.
For the last two years, the polls have shown President Arroyo to have a negative-39 percent approval rating, a number which is obtained by subtracting the number of people who approve of her from the number of those who disapprove of her.
And yet former President Joseph Estrada, whom President Arroyo pardoned after his plunder conviction, is running for reelection with 18 percent of the vote according to recent polls. Estrada was convicted of plunder after witnesses like his childhood friend, Carlos Arellano, whom Estrada appointed president of the Social Security System (SSS), testified that Estrada pressured him to invest $20 million (P900 million) in Belle Corporation stocks owned by a crony.
Another Estrada appointee, Federico Pascual, president of the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), also testified that he was similarly instructed by Estrada to invest $25 million (P1.1 billion) in Belle stocks which have all turned out to be worthless.
At his trial, Belle Corporation executives testified that Estrada’s take for facilitating government investments in Belle amounted to $4 million (P189 million) which they paid to Estrada crony Jaime Dichavez, who testified that he deposited the money in the bank account of “Jose Velarde” at the Equitable Bank, where a bank manager, Clarissa Ocampo, testified that she personally witnessed Estrada sign the name “Jose Velarde” to withdraw those funds from his account.
Despite this overwhelming evidence of his personal corruption, Estrada is still loved by the people who apparently do not have any problem with the fact that P2 billion of SSS and GSIS funds have evaporated thanks to him.
Presidential candidate Manny Villar enjoys an even higher favorable rating despite the fact that a majority of his fellow senators have charged him with making the Filipino people suffer a loss in the total amount of P6.22 billion ($129.6 million).
As senator, Senate president, and as chairman of the Senate’s Finance Committee, whose approval is needed for government funds to be disbursed, Villar caused the Department of Public Works and Highways to build a Las Pinas-Paranaque link highway (C5) that was diverted to pass through 23 subdivisions owned by Villar, substantially increasing the land values of his properties. Villar also caused the government to pay three times more than the market price to purchase his land for the roads that would pass through his subdivisions.
Another issue raised against Villar concerned the purchase by his company (Northwinds Prime) of 480 hectares of land purportedly owned by Santa Lucia Realty in Norzaragay, Bulacan for P120 million. The property that was purchased turned out to be the ancestral lands of the Dumagat tribe whose title to the 480 hectares had been fraudulently seized in 1944 by Manila businessman Don Vicente Puyat, former owner of Manila Brickworks Inc.
But the problem is that Villar’s Northwinds Prime then mortgaged the fraudulently titled lands to his bank, Capitol Development Bank, for P150 million (a P30-million profit) and the Villar-owned bank then transferred its assets to another Villar-owned bank, Optimum Development Bank, which then used the lands as collateral for a P1.5-billion emergency loan from the government’s Bangko Sentral, which it then defaulted on.
As proof that their candidate believes in the principles of accountability, transparency, integrity and credibility (Atic), Villar’s defenders cite the fact that Villar has never been convicted of fraud. Of course, neither was Ferdinand Marcos nor, for that matter, was Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
But while Arroyo as a sinner is hated, corruption as a sin is generally tolerated, if not embraced, by supporters of Estrada and Villar.
Hi! gud morning to all na nagmamahal sa mga aquino kahit kailan hindi nagbago ang aking paniniwala na may dadaig kanino man sa mga presidential candidate to noynoy. at itoy akin napatunayan dahil sa akin pagbukas sa aming site ng mga batchmate and friends.nangunguna to 80% si noynoy next is gibo na 20% silang dalawa lng ang pinipili ng aming( batch 88) kaya masayang masaya ako. Kaya kris dont worry mananalo ang presidenting hindi panig sa mga magnanakaw .
NOYNOY AQUINO’S 2 TO 4 POINT LEAD OVER VILLARROYO IN THE LATEST SWS SURVEY IS NOT A “STATISTICAL TIE” !!!
POSTSCRIPT By Federico D. Pascual Jr. (The Philippine Star) Updated March 11, 2010 12:00 AM
NOT A TIE: The media are again replete with reports that the two leading presidential candidates in the May elections are “statistically tied.” Some quarters do not see a tie.
In the last (Feb. 24-28) nationwide survey of the Social Weather Stations, Liberal presidential bet Noynoy Aquino got 36 percent of the 2,100 voters interviewed while Nacionalista candidate Manny Villar garnered 34 percent, or a difference of two percentage points.
The results were a departure from the results of the Feb. 21- 25 survey of Pulse Asia showing Aquino (36 percent) leaving Villar (29 percent) behind by seven percentage points.
Because the latest SWS survey had a margin of error of plus/minus two percent, some people added two percent to Villar’s 34 percent and, voila, saw a deadlock, calling it a “statistical tie.”
* * *
TIGHT RACE: A margin of error is unavoidable since only a random sample of 2,100 of some 35 million expected voters was interviewed in far-from-perfect field conditions. It applies to all the scores, not only to that of one candidate.
The size of the margin of error (plus/minus two percent in the SWS survey) indicates how the poll results are close to the “true” figures had all the voters been interviewed.
If we add two points to Villar’s score as we do in doing equations, we must also add two points to Aquino’s — not only to be fair but also to maintain the integrity of the mathematical comparison.
We must allow both sides in the equation to move up or down together instead of adding to one side and leaving the other side as is, then making a skewed conclusion.
So if we add two points (as margin of error) to both contenders, the two-percentage-point difference between them stays. Aquino stays ahead with two percentage points. There is no tie.
To many laymen, a more truthful way of reporting the supposed “statistical tie” is to describe the race as “close” or “tight.”
* * *
CHARTS MOVING: But the two-percentage-point difference is insignificant, because it is too small to give either Aquino or Villar an edge that could spell victory or defeat on May 10.
With two months to go before Election Day, the charts — assuming the surveys are reliable gauges of voters’ preferences — are still moving.
One creeping movement worth watching is that while the top two candidates have been wavering a bit, some of their rivals pursuing them have been gaining ground, not in big strides but in sure small steps.
* * *
NECK-AND-NECK: Aquino lost three points in Metro Manila, which is supposed to be among his bailiwicks since voters in and near the national capital tend to be oppositionist. He also lost seven points in the rest of Luzon, six in Mindanao and five points in the Visayas.
If it is any comfort to him, his rival Villar lost bigger (six points) in Metro Manila, two in the rest of Luzon and one point in Mindanao. But the NP bet gained five points in the Visayas, where Aquino lost five (coincidence?) points.
In sum, Aquino continued to lead in Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao, but Villar was ahead in the rest of Luzon.
* * *
THE PURSUERS: The SWS said many of the points lost by Aquino and Villar may have gone to those trailing them.
Former President Erap Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, No. 3 on the list, improved his standing by two points to score 15 percent. The fourth-placer, administration bet Gibo Teodoro of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD, gained two points to log six percent.
Estrada gained six points in Metro Manila, three in Mindanao, one in the rest of Luzon, but lost two points in the Visayas. That six-point gain in Metro Manila, which is thought to be resistant to showbiz dazzle, was a surprise.
Teodoro went up by three points each in the rest of Luzon and in Mindanao, and by one in the Visayas, but lost one point in Metro Manila.
Teodoro’s camp is scrambling for his hitting a two-digit score, the theory being that once he climbs to that level he may join the lead pack down the wire.
* * *
MAR ON TOP: There is no “statistical tie” to debate about in the vice presidential race. Liberal bet Mar Roxas kept a big lead over Nacionalista’s Loren Legarda, scoring 45 percent to her 28 percent in the SWS survey.
Legarda and the other vice presidential bets never posed a threat to Roxas in both the SWS and the Pulse Asia surveys. In fact, while his standard bearer Aquino has lost some ground, Roxas has been rising.
Like his presidential partner Estrada, PMP’s Jojo Binay is also in the double-digit league at 17 percent.
* * *
MONEY FLOWS: As they say, all politics is local politics. This will be more evident when the campaign of local candidates starts on March 26.
And if past elections are any indication, money and machinery will take over toward the homestretch. Candidates whose parties have not been maintained down to the grassroots and who are short of cash are likely to fall by the wayside.
To get an idea of the massive spending, note that Villar’s expenditures alone on political advertising from Nov. 1 last year to March 2 this year has been reported at over P1.3 billion.
Estrada reportedly ranks second with P88 million, followed by Aquino with P87 million, Gordon with P67.3 million, and Teodoro with P60.4 million worth of TV commercials since the start of the campaign period.
may I suggest pictures of Noynoy’s great parent Ninoy and Cory be included in this site, and in Noynoy’s campaign ads.
correct, just showing pictures and quotations from Ninoy and Cory will surely attract more votes for Noynoy. And it is proper and in order that Noynoy’s heroic parent be included in this campaign, because it was started by Ninoy, continued by Pres. Cory and now being fought by Noynoy.
I wholeheartedly agree and endorse the suggestion/proposal of Bonifacio that pictures, videos/audios, logos, historical references to the heroic, noble, compassion, vision, dynamism, democratic idealism & advocacy & practices of our beloved NINOY & CORY, Noy’s revered parents, be included in Noynoy’s campaign ads ASAP, Cheers !!!
I fully agree with you.
Hi, Philippines:
It is a superficial reading to interpret that there is a statistical tie between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar. The deeper and “subversive” reading is if Noynoy Aquino has 35% of the people with him, there is about 65% not with him. And if Manny Villar has 32%, about 68% are not with him. So it is this critical mass of 60% of the Filipinos, without whose support there can be no change management, that a candidate should work on.
Will Kris Aquino, who has always been good in reading and embedding the public pulse, be able to swing this 60% critical mass for Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas.?
josephine